Predicted Price of Silver - Investing in Coins and Metals

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interested in collecting silver coins or investing in silver bullion.

Predicted Price of Silver for February 2010

For anyone that buys and sells silver on a regular basis it is very useful to have an idea of the approximate range of the price of silver for a given month. One way to get this information is by looking at several years of past price history and use this information to determine the price of silver for the current year (see Monthly Price Patterns for the Price of Silver). In this analysis, 26 years of price history for SPOT silver was reviewed to determine an approximate range for the price of silver in February 2010.
In 15 of the last 26 years, the average price of silver has been higher in February than the previous January. This indicates a slight bias toward increasing prices in February. This upward bias disappears when we consider only the months that have the price of the last trading day in January ($16.29 for 2010) lower than the average price of silver for January ($17.79 for 2010). This occurred in eight of the 26 years studied. With this as an indicator, we see that silver is more than twice as likely to have the February average lower than the January average. The following projections will be based on data from only those eight years where the last trading day of January was lower than the average price in January.
The results for February 2010: The expected high for the month should be between $18.13 and $18.48. The expected low for the month should be between $16.21 and $16.56. The average price for the month is expected to be approximately $17.43.
Like all predictions into the future, they should be taken with a bit of skepticism. The silver market can be very volatile and can change rapidly based on world events. In general, the price of silver is closely tied to the price of gold. Where gold goes, silver will soon follow.
Disclaimer: this article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct additional research and consult you financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that my result of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Predicted Price of Silver for September 2009

By Doug West, Ph.D.

www.investmentmetalsandcoins.com

Trend Indicator - To get a better estimate of the price of silver in September we can use a price trend indicator. To determine the trend for the silver price we use the closing price of London SPOT silver the last trading day in August and compare it to the average price in August. If the closing price for the last trading day in August is higher than the average in August then it is an “up” open for September. A “down” open for September is when the closing price on the last trading day in August is below the average in August. In August 2009, London silver closed month at $14.54 per ounce and the average price for August was $14.35. Based on this definition for “up” and “down”, September 2009 silver opens (or August 2009 silver closes) the month in the “up” condition. In the last 25 Septembers, only seven opened the month with an “up” trend indictor. Of those seven, three months had their average above the August average. For the month of September the trend indicator doesn’t appear to be particularly useful for the purposes of prediction.

Monthly High, Low, and Average – since the trend indicator doesn’t appear to be of great use for the month of September we can derive an estimate of the expected high, low, and average price for silver in September 2009 using the averages from the last 25 years. In an average month, the monthly high price is six percent greater than the last trading day of August. To get an upper bound you need to add in three standard deviations to the mean change which gives $18.03. On average, the monthly low is down four percent from the last trading day of August. Using the four percent price decrease and three standard deviations puts the lower bound price at $11.34 per once. During September the average price typically only drops by one percent. Based on an average price of silver for August of $14.35, this gives an expected average price of silver for September of $14.21. What all this tells us is that during the month of September 2009, the price of sliver should range between $18.03 and $11.34, with an average of 14.21.

Putting it all together - in September 2009 the expected range of silver prices is from a potential high of $18.03 to a potential low of $11.34. The average price for the month is expected to be approximately $14.21. If September 2009 turns out to be typical, then this range in price should be reasonable. In a normal month only the upper or lower bound will be approached, not both. However, all it takes is a world crisis, a stock market boom or bust, or some other big event to see a big spike up or down in the price of silver. Good luck with your silver investments and hopefully this analysis will help

Predicted Price of Silver for August 2009

By Doug West, Ph.D.

www.investmentmetalsandcoins.com

Trend Indicator - To get a better estimate of the price of silver in August we can use a price trend indicator. To determine the trend for the silver price we use the closing price of London SPOT silver the last trading day in July and compare it to the average price in July. If the closing price for the last trading day in July is higher than the average in July then it is an “up” open for August. A “down” open for August is when the closing price on the last trading day in July is below the average in July. In July 2009, London silver closed month at $13.63 per ounce and the average price for July was $13.36. Based on this definition for “up” and “down”, August 2009 silver opens (or July 2009 silver closes) the month in the “up” condition. In the last 25 Augusts, 12 opened the month with a “up” trend indictor. Of those 12, 8 months had their average above the July average. This trend indicator appears to be useful for our purposes.

Monthly High, Low, and Average – only using the data from the 12 years with an up price trend indicator we can derive an estimate of the expected high, low, and average price for silver in August 2009. In an average month, the monthly high price is three percent greater than the last trading day of July. To get an upper bound you need to add in three standard deviations to the mean change which gives $15.67. On average, the monthly low is down six percent from the last trading day of July. Using the six percent price decrease and three standard deviations puts the lower bound price at $10.77 per once. The average price typically increases by 1 percent. Based on an average price of silver for July of $13.36, this gives an expected average price of silver for August of $13.49. What all this tells us is that during the month of August 2009, the price of sliver should range between $15.67 and $10.77, with an average of 13.49.

Putting it all together - in August 2009 the expected range of silver prices is from a potential high of $15.67 to a potential low of $10.77. The average price for the month is expected to be approximately $13.49. Since August opened with a up trend indicator, it is twice a likely to finish the month with the average price higher than July. If August 2009 turns out to be typical, then this range in price should be reasonable. However, all it takes is a world crisis, a stock market boom or bust, or some other big event to see a big spike up or down in the price of silver. Good luck with your silver investments and hopefully this analysis will help
Disclaimer: this article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct additional research and consult you financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that my result of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Predicted Price of Silver for July 2009

Monthly Average - Looking back over the last 25 years we see that the month of July does have a mildly downward history. In 14 of the last 25 years, the average price of silver in July was lower than the average price of silver in June. The price change of the average price in July to average price in June is plus three percent. This takes into account all 25 years of history. The average price of silver in June 2009 was $14.65. A three percent increase places the expected average price of silver for July 2009 at $15.09.

Trend Indicator - To get a better estimate of the price of silver in July we can use a price trend indicator. To determine the trend for the silver price we use the closing price of London SPOT silver the last trading day in June and compare it to the average price in June. If the closing price for the last trading day in June is higher than the average in June then it is an “up” open for July. A “down” open for July is when the closing price on the last trading day in June is below the average in June. In June 2009, London silver closed month at $13.94 per ounce and the average price for June was $14.65. Based on this definition for “up” and “down”, July 2009 silver opens (or June 2009 silver closes) the month in the “down” condition. In the last 25 July’s, 18 opened the month with a “down” trend indictor. Of these 18, 11 months had their average below the June average. This trend indicator appears to be useful for our purposes.

Monthly High, Low, and Average – only using the data from the 18 years with a down price trend indicator we can derive an estimate of the expected high, low, and average price for silver in July 2009. In an average month, the monthly high price is 5 percent greater than the last trading day of June. To get an upper bound you need to add in three standard deviations to the mean which gives $17.56. On average, the monthly low is down 2 percent from the last trading day of June. Using the 2 percent price decrease and three standard deviations puts the lower bound price at $11.15 per once. The average price typically drops by 1 percent. Based on an average price of silver for June of 14.65, this gives an expected average price of silver for July of $14.50. What all this tells us is that during the month of July 2009, the price of sliver should range between $17.56 and $11.15, with an average of 14.50.

Putting it all together - in July 2009 the expected range of silver prices is from a potential high of $17.56 to a potential low of $11.15. The average price for the month is expected to be approximately $14.50. If July 2009 turns out to be typical, then this range in price should be reasonable. However, all it takes is a world crisis, a stock market boom or bust, or some other big event to see a big spike up or down in the price of silver. Good luck with your silver investments and hopefully this analysis will help.

Disclaimer: this article is intended solely for information purposes. The opinions are those of the author only. Please conduct additional research and consult you financial advisor before making any investment or trading decisions. No responsibility can be accepted for losses that my result of trading on the basis of this analysis.

Predicted Price of Silver for June 2009
June 1, 2009

Monthly Average - Looking back over the last 25 years we see that the month of June does have a clear downward history. In 18 of the last 25 years, the average price of silver in June was lower than the average price of silver in May. The average price drop of the average price in June to average price in May is two percent. This takes into account all 25 years of history. The average price of silver in May 2009 was $14.03. A two percent drop places the expected average price of silver for June 2009 at $13.75.

Trend Indicator - To get a better estimate of the price of silver in June we can use a price trend indicator. To determine the trend for the silver price we use the closing price of London SPOT silver the last trading day in May and compare it to the average price in April. If the closing price for the last trading day in May is higher than the average in April then it is an “up” open for June. A “down” open for June is when the closing price on the last trading day in May is below the average in April. In May 2009, London silver closed month at $15.52 per ounce and the average price for April was $12.51. Based on this definition for “up” and “down”, June 2009 silver opens (or May 2009 silver closes) the month in the “up” condition based on this trend indicator. Unfortunately, in the month of June the trend indicator doesn’t help us much. For past June’s with an “up” trend indicator, the month finished with approximately an equal probability of moving up or down.

Monthly High and Low – using the data from the last 25 years gives an estimate of the monthly range between high and low. In a typical month, the monthly high price is 3 percent greater than the last trading day of May. To get an upper bound you need to add in three standard deviations to the mean which gives $17.38. On average, the monthly low is down 4 percent from the last trading day of May. Using the 4 percent price decrease and three standard deviations puts the lower bound price at $13.04 per once. What all this tells us is that during the month of June 2009, the price of sliver should range between $17.38 and $13.04.

Putting it all together - in June 2009 the expected range of silver prices is from a potential high of $17.38 to a potential low of $13.04. The average price for the month is expected to be approximately $13.75. If June 2009 turns out to be typical, then this range in price should be reasonable. However, all it takes is a world crisis, a stock market boom or bust, or some other big event to see a big spike up or down in the price of silver. Good luck with your silver investments and hopefully this analysis will help.

Predicted Price of Silver for May 2009

Predicted Price of Silver for May 2009 May 1, 2009 For anyone that buys and sells silver on a regular basis it is very useful to have an idea of the approximate range of the price of silver for a given month. One way to get this information is by looking at several years of past price history and use this information to determine the price of silver for the current year.

In this analysis, 25 years of price history for SPOT silver was reviewed to determine an approximate range for the price of silver in May 2009. Looking back over the last 25 years we see that the month of May doesn’t have a clear seasonal trend. During 13 of the last 25 years, the average price of silver during May was lower than the average price in April and in 12 years the average price in May was higher than in April. The historical price movement for the month of May is basically split between up and down months.

To get a better estimate of the price of silver in May we can use a price trend indicator. To determine the trend for the silver price we use the closing price of London SPOT silver the last trading day in April and compare it to the average price in March. If the closing price for the last trading day in April is higher than the average in March then it is an “up” open for May. A “down” open for May is when the closing price on the last trading day in April is below the average in March. In 2009, London silver closed at $12.63 per ounce and the average price for March was $13.12. Based on this definition for “up” and “down”, May 2009 silver opens the month in the “down” condition based on this trend indicator. In the last 25 years, May has typically opened with a down trend indicator. In only 5 of the 25 years has the trend indicator been “up” at the beginning of May. If we look at only the years where the trend indicator was down then we see that 13 of the 20 years with the down indicator also finish down. The term “finish down” means that the average price in May was less than the average price in April.

To determine what will happen to silver price in May 2009, consider the 20 years where the trend indicator was down. In a typical year, the average price of silver will drop 2 percent from April to May. In April 2009 the average price of silver was $12.51, using a 2 percent drop gives an average price of silver from May 2009 to be $12.27. An estimate of the monthly range between high and low can also be made from the historical price data. In a typical month, the monthly high price is 5 percent greater than the last trading day of April. To get an upper bound you need to add in two standard deviations to the mean change and doing this you come up with $14.52. On average, the monthly low is down 4 percent from the last trading day of April. Using the 4 percent price decrease and two standard deviations puts the lower bound price at $10.86 per once.

What all this tells us is that during the month of May 2009, the price of sliver should range between $10.86 and $14.52. Putting it all together - in May 2009 the expected range of silver prices is from a potential high of $14.52 to a potential low of $10.86. The average price for the month is expected to be approximately $12.27. If May 2009 turns out to be typical, then this range in price should be reasonable. However, all it takes is a world crisis, a stock market boom or bust, or some other big event to see a big spike up or down in the price of silver. Good luck with your silver investments and hopefully this analysis will help.

Predicted Price of Silver for April to June 2009
1 April 2009

Would you like to know what the price of silver will be in the near future? Who wouldn’t? Since we can’t see into the future, the next best thing is to look back at historical prices and see what useful information that can provide. The analysis presented in this guide uses the spot price of silver from 1984 until March 2009. From this historical information the future price of silver for the period April through June 2009 is estimated. Silver, like many other commodities, is subject to seasonal price patterns. Using the seasonal nature of the price of silver and 25 years of price history an expected range of prices for silver is predicted.

The historical silver price information used in this study was the London closing price for spot (or physical) silver. The data available was from 1984 through the end of March 2009. The analysis used the high, low, and average price of silver during the three months April, May, and June for each of these years. The normal seasonal pattern for silver during the second quarter of the year is for the closing price on the last trading day of June to be lower by 3 percent than the last trading day of the previous March. Of the 25 years studied the June price was lower than the March price in 17 years. During the remaining 8 years the price of silver was greater on the last day of June than it was on the last trading day in March. Since the years where the price declined out numbered the years with a price increase by over 2 to 1, this leads to the conclusion that the second quarter of the year typically sees a small decrease in the price of silver.

On March 31, 2009 the London closing price for silver was $13.11 per Troy ounce. Using this as a starting point and 25 years of price history you can make an educated guess as to the price of silver at the end of June as well as the high and low during the three month period. Over the last 25 years the price of silver dropped by an average of three percent from the last trading in March to the last trading day in June. Using the $13.11 as a starting reference point, this implies the price of silver should be $12.72 per Troy ounce on June 30, 2009.

During the last 25 years the average highest price of silver was nine percent greater than the end of March price. Taking into account the nine percent increase and two standard deviations we come up with projected high price of $17.17. The most common month for the high to occur is April. To get the lowest price during the three month interval follow the same procedure. Over the last 25 years the lowest price for silver was seven percent below the end of March price. Taking into account the seven percent drop and two standard deviations we get a low price of $10.09. The low typically occurs in the month of May.

In conclusion - based on this simple statistical analysis procedure, we can conclude that the price of silver will range between $17.17 and $10.09 for the months of April, May, and June of 2009. With the highest price most likely occurring in April and the lowest price in May.

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Predicted Price of Silver for February 2010

Predicted Price of Silver for September 2009

By Doug West, Ph.D.

www.investmentmetalsandcoins.com

Predicted Price of Silver for August 2009

By Doug West, Ph.D.

www.investmentmetalsandcoins.com

Predicted Price of Silver for July 2009

Predicted Price of Silver for June 2009 June 1, 2009

Predicted Price of Silver for May 2009

Predicted Price of Silver for April to June 2009 1 April 2009

Predicted Price of Silver for June 2009
June 1, 2009

Predicted Price of Silver for April to June 2009
1 April 2009