Coin Values in an Economic Recession
6 April 2009
You can’t hardly turn on the TV or open a newspaper without some mention of the economic recession. So what does this recession mean for the coin collector and dealer? Will the value of our collections take a big hit? Obviously, we won’t know the effects until a recession actually occurs. However, we can look at the last two recessions and see what happened to a typical group of coins. The two most recent recessions occurred from July 1990 to March 1991 and March 2001 to November 2001.
To try to quantify the effects of a recession on coin values I compiled the prices of a group of coins in the table below. These prices are Coin Dealer Newsletter (CDN) bid values for the date in the first column. Due to a limited number of old CDN’s at my disposal I used the issues that most closely bracketed the recession period. These are the coins I would typically see in a coin collection. So hopefully this will give a decent representation of the average coin collection.
Date |
1956 |
Large Cent |
Indian |
Liberty |
Bust 10 Cent |
L.S. Dime |
L.S. 25 Cent |
Morgan |
1934-S |
$10 Gold |
Recession #1 - July 1990 - March 1991 |
||||||||||
1/5/1990 |
$34.00 |
$7.50 |
$25.00 |
$150.00 |
$9.00 |
$110.00 |
$8.25 |
$59.00 |
$110.00 |
$408.00 |
1/3/1992 |
$24.00 |
$9.00 |
$30.00 |
$105.00 |
$10.00 |
$90.00 |
$9.00 |
$59.00 |
$120.00 |
$330.00 |
-29.4% |
20.0% |
20.0% |
-30.0% |
11.1% |
-18.2% |
9.1% |
0.0% |
9.1% |
-19.1% |
|
|
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Recession #2 - March 2001 - November 2001 |
||||||||||
1/5/2001 |
$28.00 |
$11.00 |
$38.00 |
$90.00 |
$17.25 |
$100.00 |
$14.00 |
$90.00 |
$100.00 |
$265.00 |
1/4/2002 |
$36.00 |
$14.00 |
$41.00 |
$90.00 |
$17.25 |
$100.00 |
$15.00 |
$90.00 |
$100.00 |
$280.00 |
% change |
28.6% |
27.3% |
7.9% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
7.1% |
0.0% |
0.0% |
5.7% |
|
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Change in last 18 Years: |
||||||||||
1/5/1990 |
$34.00 |
$7.50 |
$25.00 |
$150.00 |
$9.00 |
$110.00 |
$8.25 |
$59.00 |
$110.00 |
$408.00 |
4/11/2008 |
$54.00 |
$19.00 |
$52.00 |
$125.00 |
$35.00 |
$100.00 |
$23.00 |
$170.00 |
$145.00 |
$665.00 |
% change |
58.8% |
153.3% |
108 % |
-16.7% |
289% |
-9.1% |
178.8% |
188.1% |
31.8% |
63% |
The first recession occurred between July 1990 and March 1991. The fourth row down labeled “% change” shows what the percent change was for each of the ten groups of coins. The 1956 proof set and the proof Liberty nickel took the biggest hit during the period January 1990 to January 1992, both down around 30% - not good. However, five of the coins showed an increase in price over this period and one, the 1891-CC AU Morgan dollar showed no change. In summary, four of the coins went down, one stayed the same, and five went up in value. Depending on how many of each coin type you owned, this recession could have been either positive or negative to the value of your collection.
The second recession ran from March 2001 to November 2001. It was a short one. During the period of January 2001 to 2002 our small group of coins faired a little better this time. Five of the coins showed an increase and five showed no change in price. The 1956 proof set and the VG large cent both gained over 25 percent during this year. Not a bad increase. This recession didn’t have a negative effect on this group of coins.
Just for the fun of it, I calculated the percent change for each coin type from January 1990 to April 2009. Eight of the ten showed an increase in price. The biggest looser was the Proof-60 Liberty Nickel, which was down a little over 16 percent. All the other groups did much better. The small size Bust dime was up a whopping 289 percent!
To sum it all up, I would have to say that the last two recessions have not been too bad on this small coin collection. Maybe this recession won’t be a financial disaster for the average collector and dealer.